Machine Learning-Driven Rapid Optimization of Solar Power Plant Sizing Using HOMER-Generated Synthetic Scenarios

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Elmalı N., Altın C.

SUSTAINABILITY, cilt.18, sa.12, ss.1-28, 2026 (SCI-Expanded, SSCI, Scopus)

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 18 Sayı: 12
  • Basım Tarihi: 2026
  • Doi Numarası: 10.3390/su18126364
  • Dergi Adı: SUSTAINABILITY
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Scopus, Science Citation Index Expanded (SCI-EXPANDED), Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Geobase, INSPEC, CAB Abstracts
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.1-28
  • Açık Arşiv Koleksiyonu: AVESİS Açık Erişim Koleksiyonu
  • Yozgat Bozok Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

Solar power plants are among the most widely used renewable energy sources today. Varying radiation levels from region to region, and similarly varying consumption depending on the user within a given region, make the optimal sizing of these plants challenging. In this study, a machine learning-based surrogate model for the real-time sizing optimization of solar power plants, trained with a completely original dataset, has been developed. In the first stage, 500 different solar power plant installation scenarios were synthetically generated and evaluated in HOMER, and the obtained optimal sizing outputs were used as training targets for the proposed surrogate model rather than real operational data. The results obtained by applying various machine learning methods to the generated dataset are presented comparatively. Among 7 different machine learning models, XGBoost, Gradient Boosting, and LightGBM demonstrated the best performance. The developed model achieved an average R2 score of 0.9425 for a total of 3 targets, while target-specific performance showed R2 scores of 0.9747 for inverters, 0.9365 for PV panels, and 0.9165 for batteries. This model serves as a computationally efficient surrogate of the HOMER optimization process, enabling high-accuracy real-time predictions while significantly reducing the computational burden associated with intensive mathematical calculations, iterative procedures, and complex search spaces.