Trend and homogeneity analysis in temperature and rainfall series in western Black Sea region, Turkey


AY M.

THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, vol.139, pp.837-848, 2020 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 139
  • Publication Date: 2020
  • Doi Number: 10.1007/s00704-019-03066-6
  • Title of Journal : THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY
  • Page Numbers: pp.837-848

Abstract

This paper includes a study which applied homogeneity and trend tests on time series of monthly mean temperature and monthly total rainfall recorded in the provinces of Bartin, Bolu, Duzce, Kastamonu, Sinop, and Zonguldak of western Black Sea region in Turkey. The Runs test was used to check the homogeneity of both variables. Analyses were made using Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test, Sen trend test, and linear trend test for the time period 1960-2017. According to the results of all tests, although monthly total rainfall of Bartin, Kastomonu, Sinop, and Zonguldak stations has inhomogeneous time series, Bolu and Duzce have homogeneous time series. The monthly mean temperature of all stations has no homogeneity. Although Kastamonu and Sinop have statistically significant increasing trends according to the linear trend test, other provinces have no statistically significant trends for both variables. There are no statistically significant trends for both variables in all stations according to the MK trend test; however, there are statistically significant increasing trends for monthly mean temperature in all stations according to the Sen trend test. Monthly total rainfall of Duzce (17072) has a statistically significant decreasing trend at 95% confidence interval; other stations have statistically significant increasing trends according to the Sen trend test.